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Analysis

Upcoming Optimism Unlock Threatens To Drag OP Below $1

The Optimism native token OP is now in the line of fire with millions of tokens set to be released into circulation. This threatens the altcoin’s price which is already on a downward spiral after carrying out its 3rd airdrop.

Optimism Set To Unlock 24 Million Tokens

In the latest iteration of its token unlock events, the Optimism network is looking at over 24 million tokens being unlocked and brought into circulation. On-chain token tracking website Token Unlocks reports that the 24.16 million token is worth approximately $30.7 million at current prices.

The token unlock event will take place on September 30, which is less than four days from the time of writing. This will see the equivalent of 3.03% of the total OP supply being released into circulation at once.

Optimism OP unlock

24.16 million tokens set to be unlocked | Source: Token Unlocks

This is coming just one month after the network locked an equivalent amount on August 30. Just like the August unlock, the 24.16 million tokens are allocated to two groups. 12.75 million tokens worth $16.19 million are going to Core Contributors and 11.41 million tokens worth $14.49 million will go to Investors.

The Optimism unlock event is the largest of the over $54 million in token unlocks expected to happen over the next seven days. Other notable unlocks include SUI unlocking 4.9% of supply worth $16.92 million and Yield Guild Games (YGG) unlocking 6.7% of supply worth $2.55 million.

Gauging The Impact on OP Price

A good way to figure out how the OP price might react is to look at historical performance during similar events. In the case of the OP price, there is no need to look too far back as the last token unlock event happened only a month ago.

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On August 30, Optimism unlocked an identical number of tokens and the price reacted negatively to this new supply. OP initially held tight around the $1.5 mark but once the unlock was completed, the price of the token nosedived, dropping from $1.5 to $1.3 in the span of two days.

This shows that token unlocks, especially with the size of the upcoming Optimism unlock, are inherently bearish for price. If the historical pattern holds, then the OP price could easily succumb to the bears and threaten the $1 mark. At the very least, the impact of this new supply could lead to a 10% decline, which would put the OP price just above $1.1.

Even now, OP is already feeling the impact of the incoming bearish sentiment. Over the last week, the price has plummeted more than 10%, bringing it below the $1.3 resistance.

Optimism (OP) price chart from Tradingview.com (token unlock)

OP price threatened with new unlock | Source: OPUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

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