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Bitcoin: Where will volatility take prices?

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.

  • September US CPI data will be released on 12 October. 
  • Sell limit orders were placed at $28.5k, $29k, and $29.5k. 

On 6 October, Bitcoin [BTC] price spiked and retested $28k following the resilient US Labor market in September. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), September payroll employment increased by 336k, and unemployment remained at 3.8%.


Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-24


The positive labor data could prompt a hawkish stance from FOMC in the next meeting in November. However, the September CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, scheduled for 12 October, could clarify the Fed’s rate decision in November. 

In the previous BTC price action analysis, AMBCrypto correctly predicted a spike above $28k before a retracement toward $27.5k driven by a liquidity hunt. 

Which way for Bitcoin price during CPI volatility?

Bitcoin

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

BTC has shown a trend of retesting price imbalances or liquidity areas. Buyers have used the price imbalance of $27.0k – $27.2k (orange) since 2 October to re-enter the market. 

The recent rejection and high of $28.5k was also a previous low in early August. Above the level lays another price imbalance of $28.7k – $29.0k (white), bordering a daily bearish OB of $29.0k -$30.4k (red). 

As such, we could expect BTC to retest the above overhead resistances ($28.5k, $29k, or $29.5k) if the Thursday CPI data favors bulls. 

Conversely, bulls are expected to defend the price imbalance and the demand area of $27.0k – $27.2k. 

See also  Bitcoin: Analyzing the latest sentiment in BTC derivatives market

Any drop below the area ($27k) could weaken BTC to $26.4k or daily bullish OB, especially if the September CPI favor sellers. 

Meanwhile, buying pressure was positive, as RSI showed, but spot market demand has fluctuated in the past few days, as illustrated by wavering OBV. Besides, CMF labored below zero, indicating capital inflows into the BTC market remained muted. 

Sell limit orders at $28.5k and $29k

Bitcoin

Source: MobChart

Based on order flow analysis from MobChart data, BTC could see price reaction at $28.5k, $29k or $29.5k. There were considerable sell limit orders at these levels. On Binance Exchange alone, the $28.5k and $29k had 145 and 157 BTCs for sale, respectively, at press time. 


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On the other hand, buy limit orders were at $27.2k and $27.0k. The above buy and sell limit order placement levels coincided with key liquidity levels, as Coinglass’s Liquidation Map showed

So, we could see extended BTC price fluctuations between $27k and $28k-$29k in the next few days. 

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